战争之王

In Lebanon, thousands displaced from border towns by clashes_我的网站

一 |     TYRE, Lebanon -- More than 4,200 people have been displaced from villages in south Lebanon by clashes on the border with Israel, and local officials said Friday that they are ill-prepared for the much larger exodus that would ensue if the the limited conflict escalates to an all-out war.Some 1,500 of the displaced are staying in three schools in the coastal city of Tyre, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the border.As children ran through the courtyard and women hung out clothes to dry on chairs at one of those schools on Friday, Mortada Mhanna, head of the disaster management unit of the municipalities in the Tyre area, said hundreds of newly displaced people are arriving each day. Some move on to stay with relatives or rent apartments, but others have no place to go besides the makeshift shelter, while Lebanon's cash-strapped government has few resources to offer.“We can make the decision to open a new school (as a shelter), but if the resources are not secured, we’ll have a problem,” Mhanna said. He appealed to international organizations to "give us enough supplies that if the situation evolves, we can at least give people a mattress to sleep on and a blanket.”The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and allied Palestinian groups in Lebanon have launched daily missile strikes on northern Israel since the outbreak of the latest Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7, while Israel has responded by shelling border areas in south Lebanon. To date, the clashes have killed at least 22 people in Lebanon, four of them civilians.Sporadic skirmishes continued Friday while a number of airlines canceled flights to Beirut. Countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Germany have warned their citizens to leave Lebanon.For many of the displaced, the current tensions bring back memories of the brutal one-month war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, during which Israeli bombing leveled large swathes of the villages in south Lebanon and in Beirut's southern suburbs.The tactic of overwhelming force to strike civilian infrastructure as a measure of military deterrence was dubbed the “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” named after the area south of the capital that was targeted.Should another full-blown war erupt between Hezbollah and Israel, “even the city of Tyre will no longer be safe ... because all of the south was subject to bombing” in 2006, Mhanna said.Among the school's temporary residents is Mustafa Tahini, whose house in the border town of Aita al Shaab was destroyed in 2006, along with most of the village. Back then, aid flowed into Lebanon from Qatar and other countries for reconstruction, but this time, Tahini said, “God knows if someone will come to help us.”“I am not a political analyst. I hope things will calm down, but the things you see in the news aren't reassuring,” said Tahini, whose wife and children are staying with relatives in Beirut while he remains closer to home. Still, he said, he is mentally prepared for another war. “We've been through it before.”Sixty-two-year old Nasmieh Srour from the town of Duhaira has been staying in the school with her husband and two daughters for a week, along with many of the village's residents. Like Tahini, she was displaced in 2006; she is also stoic about the prospects of a wider conflict.“Maybe it will get bigger, maybe it will calm down - there’s no way to know," Srour said. Should the displacement become protracted, said Edouard Beigbeder the representative in Lebanon of UNICEF, the U.N. agency for children, said education will be one of the main casualties. Already 52 of the 300 schools in south Lebanon are closed due to the hostilities, leaving more than 8,000 children out of education in addition to those enrolled in the schools that are now being used as shelters, he said. A wider conflict would also threaten key infrastructure including electric supplies and, by extension, water supplies.“In any escalation," Beigbeder said, “it is the most vulnerable and the children who are (left) in dire situation.”。    德国女外长贝尔伯克被叙利亚实际控制者艾哈迈德·沙拉拒绝握手的一幕传遍世界，这是她本人的尴尬、也让德国挺没面子。

二 | 如果说是女性拒绝同男性握手，被拒者还有较大诙谐自嘲的空间。但这是反过来的，而且是贝尔伯克与法国外长巴罗一起“上赶着”跑去大马士革见对方，贝尔伯克主动笑着伸出手，却遭了拒绝。难怪德国《焦点》周刊说贝尔伯克受到了“双重蔑视”。尽管贝尔伯克事后表示“当我来到这里时，我很清楚，不会有正常的握手”，但是这显然是她为挽回一些面子的自我开脱，因为如果她完全清楚对方将做出拒绝的反应，她就不会主动笑吟吟地伸出手了。遭拒绝握手肯定是外交尴尬，但又不止于此。

三 | 虽然贝尔伯克是德国外交部长，她当时是以这一身份出面的，但她同时毕竟还是女性，这样的尴尬会被很多人看成对她人格的羞辱。伊斯兰教最保守的规定禁止没有亲密关系的异性握手，但是在比较开明的伊斯兰世界，男女握手，尤其是公职人员礼节性握手，已经司空见惯。很多非穆斯林男性都有在伊斯兰国家与女性公职人员握手的经历，在巴沙尔时期的叙利亚，这也不是个问题。▲1月3日，德国外长贝尔伯克（左一）、法国外长巴罗（右一）与“叙利亚沙姆解放武装”领导人艾哈迈德·沙拉（中）在大马士革举行会晤。（图源：外媒）德国和法国都在淡化贝尔伯克被拒握手的尴尬，这可以理解，因为与叙利亚新政权合作已经成为西方的主流选择。不过这件事情预示了叙利亚新政权可能与西方发生的潜在冲突。西方与伊斯兰国家被亨廷顿视为“文明冲突”，不过西方现在完全用地缘政治思维考量哪个叙利亚政权对他们更有利，所以出女外长被当地政权首领拒绝握手的尴尬，在今后可能就不是孤立的，他们之间的摩擦或许刚刚开始。

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